Showing posts with label Dystopia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dystopia. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Anguilla's Prospects


We in the West Indies are screwed by this Covid-19 pandemic.
Most of our islands rely on tourism as the “engine that drives our economy”.  Well, tourism is dead for years to come.  Most of our airports and seaports are closed until further notice.  Even if we reopen our ports soon, the visitor won’t be able to arrive if his/her home ports are shut.  Even if you can get into our island, you will still have to be quarantined here for 14 days.  Fortunately, you can be self-quarantined in your hotel room.  But, when you get back home, most countries also require another 14-day quarantine.
Anyway, only a very desperate person would risk going on an aeroplane for the foreseeable future.  As for cruise ships, only the most reckless or ignorant and uninformed would take the suicidal risk of going on one for the next several years.  Cruise ships are presently banned from Caribbean ports, but if one is permitted entry, eg, for food and supplies, it is on condition that not one person lands.
Our hotels won’t re-open for another year or two.  There is no hope for the coming 2020-21 tourism season.  When the hotels open, there will be no guests arriving.  By, January 2021 all tourism workers will have been let go (most in Anguilla at least, are presently at home on at best half-pay).  The 2021-22 tourist season will not occur.
Our ministers have announced they will cut their salaries by 15% and all public servants by 10%.  What they have not announced is that within 12 months, the numbers of public servants will be cut by 50%.  Those who remain will serve at 50% of their present salaries.  With raging unemployment spreading in the community, I fear for the coming civil disturbances.
My amateur analysis predicts that 100% effective vaccinations will not be widely available for another two years.  Dr Fauci's eighteen months is pure optimism.  There will be little or no international travel during that time.  After that date, and until the disease is declared eradicated, airplanes will fly at one-third their capacity. Most non-legacy airlines such as Ryan Air, West Jet, and Virgin, will disappear.  On the surviving airlines, fares will be three or four times the present levels.  There will be very few airlines flying tourists to the West Indies for the next several years.
Hotel tourism will take at least another four or five years to begin to recover.  Cruise tourism will take another six or seven years.  Most hotels, guest houses, restaurants and water sports will soon be bankrupt and closed.  Internationally, the next two Olympics will be cancelled.  Football, cricket, baseball matches, and other sporting events locally and internationally will limit admittance by the public.
China will own and run Asia, Africa, South America and the Caribbean by the end of this pandemic.
Sea level rising will cause half the population of Bangladesh to attempt to emigrate to Copenhagen.
To me, it is as clear as the sky over a closed-down capital city.
Just be grateful that we of the 60s and 70s age-group grew up in the post-pill, pre-AIDS era.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

The Real Immigration Crisis


The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest on the planet.  On 15 August, a part of it began to slip into the sea.  At a height of 15,000 feet, the sheet is home to the South Pole.   If the entire thing floated, the result would be a sea level rise of 53 meters world-wide.  Fortunately, this particular August slip was minor.  Over the space of a year a mere 6 inches was added to the height of the world’s oceans.
The effect was not immediately obvious.  There was no tsunami effect.  The smallest of ripples spread out from Antarctica to all the continental slopes facing south.  Cape Town reported the sea rise first.  A few blocks of the city were affected.  No similar immediate consequences for Europe or North America were forecast.  The world relaxed.
Bangladesh in south-east Asia hosted a total population of 185 million, mostly Sunni adherents.  The delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers was home to 85 million of them.  Most of the delta population lived and farmed a few inches above sea level.
World media did not immediately take notice when twenty hours after the ice slip many delta dwellers were up to their ankles in water.  When the raised water level did not recede, it became apparent to the east Bengalis that they could no longer survive in their ancestral delta lands.  They would starve if they stayed put.  They must move to higher ground.
They had a choice.  They could trek north over the Chittagong Hills and up the Brahmaputra River valley.  This way led to Assam and thence to Bhutan and China.  Or, they could march west up the valley of the Ganges towards Patna.
The ten million minority who chose the first route up the Brahmaputra River Valley eventually approached Arunachal Pradesh on the border of China.  That was a mistake.  China would not accept ten million Sunni Muslims immigrating into their territory.  They had enough experience of that problem.  Urgent steps were called for.
The thermonuclear bomb destroys life and property.  The neutron bomb by contrast is harmful to life but does not destroy property.  It will kill all life within its reach, but leaves the landscape untouched.  Most countries have agreed not to develop the neutron bomb.  But, it has proven too perfect a weapon to be abandoned.  As the Chinese government saw it, the need to remove the threat of millions of Bangladeshis invading China was pressing.  And, it must be done without damaging any of the territory of China.  Three strategically placed neutron bombs soon obliterated the Sunni threat.  China was saved.  The Secretary General of the United Nations fumed against this brutality.  The Chinese said nothing.
The remaining 75 million men, women and children marched up the valley of the Ganges, heading west to India.  The government of India was faced with an invasion.  India too is a nuclear power.  There was the Chinese example.  Four strategically placed neutron devices ensured that, with a minimum of damage to India’s territory, the refugees were nudged on their way westwards.  The International Bar Association expressed outrage.  The 70 million surviving refugees continued through Indian Kashmir towards Pakistan.
Pakistan is also a nuclear power.  Opening a wide path along the Silk Road gave the refugees safe passage to the west without having to bomb them.  There were one thousand miles to go to reach Afghanistan.  Aid agencies flocked to help mollify the human tragedy.  It took months of walking, and many died, but the majority made it.
Medicin Sans Frontieres provided clinics along the way.  UNICEF and Save the Children Fund opened food outlets to feed millions on the march.  The air fleets of the United States, France and the United Kingdom made parachute drops.  A million tons of foodstuffs, water and medicines were delivered.  Hundreds of thousands fell by the way, but the survivors continued through Pakistan towards Afghanistan.
They swarmed the Khyber Pass in late spring.  Afghanistan had no nuclear bombs.  Villagers tried to protect their lands with a combination of scimitar and Kalashnikov.  But, the westward flow could not be stemmed.  As row upon row of marchers were mowed down, the now desperate followers stepped over the fallen bodies and continued onwards to their ultimate destination.  The president of Amnesty International resigned.  Its offices closed as funding dried up.
The border between Iran and Afghanistan was no barrier to Alexander the Great in 327 BC.  It was no barrier now to the surviving 60 million desperate souls.
Word went out from the Supreme Leader.  Let the marchers pass.  With help from the Red Crescent, the majority survived.  Bangladesh was a distant bad memory.  The west and the good life beckoned them onwards.
Turkey was no stranger to millions of refugees arriving from the east.  Recent immigrants had stayed put.  The present visitors wanted no stayover in Turkey.  Their aim was further west.  All that was necessary was for the Turks to open the borders and help usher the crowds westwards, plying them with food and water and all the transport they could muster.
In Europe, preparations to meet the coming invasion proceeded apace.  Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania, erected machine gun towers every 100 meters along the borders, marked out by a series of forty-foot fences.
The Prime Minister of Hungary shrugged off criticism with the explanation, “If they breed like rats, let them die like rats.”  His only question was whether there were enough bullets in all of Europe to match the numbers of coming immigrants.
Italy and France positioned armed gunboats every two hundred and fifty meters the length of the Mediterranean Sea.  The only official fear was that gaps in the line would develop as boats returned to shore to rearm.
The European Union showed signs of collapse.  Brussels became a ghost town.  In Geneva, the UN Human Rights Commissioner put a gun to his own head.
Barely nine months after the ice slip occurred, on 1 May, the wave of would-be immigrants topped the range of Anatolian hills that, two thousand five hundred years before, had confronted Xenophon’s retreating army of Ten Thousand Greeks.  As the masses crested the ridge, their ultimate destination was in sight.  The front ranks of the survivors looked down with joy at the banks of the Bosporus. 
It was not the old cry of Xenophon’s Greeks that rang out, “Thalassa, Thalassa, Thalassa.”  Instead, full 50 million cried out in Urdu, “لو ہم آ گئے کوپن ہیگن
Or, if you prefer English, “Copenhagen, here we come!”