We in the West Indies are screwed by this Covid-19
pandemic.
Most
of our islands rely on tourism as the “engine that drives our economy”. Well, tourism is dead for years to come. Most of our airports and seaports are closed
until further notice. Even if we reopen
our ports soon, the visitor won’t be able to arrive if his/her home ports are
shut. Even if you can get into our
island, you will still have to be quarantined here for 14 days. Fortunately, you can be self-quarantined in
your hotel room. But, when you get back
home, most countries also require another 14-day quarantine.
Anyway,
only a very desperate person would risk going on an aeroplane for the
foreseeable future. As for cruise ships,
only the most reckless or ignorant and uninformed would take the suicidal risk
of going on one for the next several years. Cruise ships are presently banned from
Caribbean ports, but if one is permitted entry, eg, for food and supplies, it
is on condition that not one person lands.
Our
hotels won’t re-open for another year or two. There is no hope for the coming 2020-21
tourism season. When the hotels open,
there will be no guests arriving. By,
January 2021 all tourism workers will have been let go (most in Anguilla at
least, are presently at home on at best half-pay). The 2021-22 tourist season will not occur.
Our
ministers have announced they will cut their salaries by 15% and all public
servants by 10%. What they have not
announced is that within 12 months, the numbers of public servants will be cut
by 50%. Those who remain will serve at
50% of their present salaries. With
raging unemployment spreading in the community, I fear for the coming civil
disturbances.
My amateur
analysis predicts that 100% effective vaccinations will not be widely available
for another two years. Dr Fauci's
eighteen months is pure optimism. There
will be little or no international travel during that time. After that date, and until the disease is
declared eradicated, airplanes will fly at one-third their capacity. Most
non-legacy airlines such as Ryan Air, West Jet, and Virgin, will disappear. On the surviving airlines, fares will be three
or four times the present levels. There
will be very few airlines flying tourists to the West Indies for the next
several years.
Hotel tourism
will take at least another four or five years to begin to recover. Cruise tourism will take another six or seven
years. Most hotels, guest houses,
restaurants and water sports will soon be bankrupt and closed. Internationally, the next two Olympics will be
cancelled. Football, cricket, baseball
matches, and other sporting events locally and internationally will limit
admittance by the public.
China will own
and run Asia, Africa, South America and the Caribbean by the end of this
pandemic.
Sea level
rising will cause half the population of Bangladesh to attempt to emigrate to
Copenhagen.
To me, it is as
clear as the sky over a closed-down capital city.
Just be
grateful that we of the 60s and 70s age-group grew up in the post-pill,
pre-AIDS era.
