Anguilla
is a typical small island developing state.
We have a tiny population of twelve thousand persons. But we are required to provide most of the basic
services for our people that large states do.
We have the same number of people as a small village in the UK or
Nigeria. But we are obliged to have a
similar infrastructure as London or Abouja, including police, customs, and
immigration departments. While the
world’s economy was booming, we were easily able to pay for this luxury.
When
the international leisure industry was at its peak, we could pick up the crumbs
to meet our public administration bills.
Before terrorism and money laundering became a world-wide issue, we
could provide liberal financial services to the international community, and
cream off some of the wealth to cover our government costs. That has all changed now.
Unlike
the islands around us, Anguilla has managed to stay Covid-free since the first
3 cases in March 2020. We have done this
by imposing strict quarantine and border control regulations. So long as we maintain quarantine regulations
and border closure, we can be relatively confident that we will remain
safe. At present, we insist that anyone
arriving must quarantine, initially at government’s expense, in a secure
location for between 10 and 14 days, depending on whether they come from a relatively
Covid-free country or not. They must
also pay a charge to cover the cost of their quarantine and the ancillary
services, such as food and security personnel.
But, with the economy collapsing, the good sense of these regulations is
now being questioned.
From
what I hear, hotel guests are cancelling their reservations for the 2020/2021
winter season. As a result, it seems to
me that most of the major hotels of Anguilla will be obliged to shutter for the
season. Restaurants, water sports
companies, car rentals, holiday apartments, and other tourism-related
businesses will be forced to close. The
excuse being given by some cancelling guests is that Anguilla’s quarantine
restrictions prohibit their arrival on our shores. They say they are going to spend the winter instead
in Antigua and Saint Lucia. There, they
say, the Covid-19 regulations are much laxer.
We will have to wait and see. Personally,
I very much doubt there will be much tourism to Antigua or St Lucia in the
coming 2020/2021 season. Reservations in
October do not automatically equate to warm beds in December.
Unemployment
increases daily. The hotels, especially
the foreign-owned ones on Anguilla’s coastline, are now pressuring government
to open. We read that they accuse us of
being unreasonable in our quarantine regulations. They loudly proclaim in the press, and on TV,
and radio that it is government’s fault that staff are being fired. They say that, if only the quarantine
regulations were slackened to be the same as Antigua and St Lucia, the staff
would all be back at work.
This
is all nonsense, of course. Any thinking
person who keeps up with the international news knows the truth. It does not matter if every quarantine
restriction is removed. Few visitors will
come to the Caribbean this winter. Only
the most reckless US or European traveller, careless of his or her health, will
visit us for a holiday.
There
is the problem with air lift. We read
that the world’s major airlines are mothballing their planes and laying off
their staff. Air France, Air Canada,
American Airlines, Delta Airlines, each are applying for tens of billions of
dollars from their governments to help them keep afloat. They will likely not get it since there is no
more money. The cruise lines have all
laid up their ships. It is not likely
they will get any more bail outs. It seems
to me that it will take another decade, if ever, for them to recover.
The
bottom line is the leisure travel industry as we knew it pre-2020 is dead. Few international travellers will be arriving
on any Caribbean shores. In my crystal
ball, I see a full one half of the luxury hotels of Anguilla abandoned. There will be palm trees growing out of their
windows before long. Most of the luxury
restaurants will have sold their pots and pans and shut for good. No more caviar and champagne. From now on, we dine out on johnny cake and
corned beef. We must find other ways
than tourism to occupy our time and earn an income. And none of it will be due to the strict
quarantine regulations now in force.
Perhaps
most ominous for Anguilla’s economy, a recent report in the newspaper indicates
that government’s revenue from taxes and licences is less than half what was
budgeted for this year. This revenue is
needed to pay our bloated public service their salaries and other
emoluments. The situation is not
sustainable. Something has got to
give. Logically, with only half the
revenue, we must cut our costs by a half.
Either we let go half of the public service, or they all stay on, but at
half of their salaries.
Even
with cost-cutting, the Anguilla as we know it is not sustainable. The nanny-state that Anguilla aspired to be
in the good times is now out of our reach.
We cannot afford any more subsidised education, health care, or social
services. These will shortly have to be
met by user fees. We must cease paying
the cost of hospitalising in Panama our gunshot gangster youth. These social services will soon be a thing of
the past. We just have not realized it
yet. And it is nothing to do with the
strict quarantine and border control regulations.
Then, there is the possibility of coming international
political and economic instability. Trump
has threatened that he is not going to leave the White House in January. If civil disturbances break out in the United
States this winter, there will be no airlines flying out of Kennedy or Miami
International Airport to the Caribbean, even without the pandemic.
It
may not happen on election day, November 3, or on December 14 when the
Electoral College meets. But, if by
January 21, Inauguration Day, there is turmoil all over the United States, there
will likely be no leisure travel from the US to the Caribbean. If this occurs, we cannot blame either Covid
or the British for the resulting economic catastrophe.
Then,
there is natural traveller caution. Covid-19
spreads fastest through the air in confined spaces. In early 2020 at the start of the epidemic,
cruise ships were centres of infection.
They are all laid up now. I
expect that, with a few foolhardy exceptions, they will not resume their cruise
schedules until 2022.
Everything
depends on the availability of a safe and effective vaccine. The epidemiologists have explained why one
will not be approved until early in 2021.
Even then, it will not be widely available to us until mid- to late-2021. Without being vaccinated, no sensible person
will choose to go on holiday overseas by sea or by air.
Meanwhile,
doubts and confusion about vaccinations are being spread by anti-vaxxers and
other conspiracy theorists. These
operate both locally and internationally.
Recent surveys in the USA and Europe reveal that the result is that,
even when a vaccine does become available, it will not quickly be taken up by
everyone. It may take years for most of the
public to enjoy the benefits of vaccination.
Which one of us is going to be so negligent as to travel unvaccinated to
a foreign country with medical services of an unknown quality for a holiday, amid
a pandemic? Even if Anguilla opened
promiscuously, abandoning all health precautions, I do not believe that a
single additional passenger will risk arriving on our shores at this time.
The
conspiracy theorists are not helping. Anguilla’s
more racist conspiracy theorists are now filling the airwaves with dire warnings. To hear their panicked voices, the UK public
health system is putting pressure on Anguilla to shut our borders. They express certainty that the white British
are out to punish poor little black us. Quite
why the British would want to do such a thing to Anguilla is anyone’s
guess. But anti-British feeling, fuelled
by a pernicious and ingrained racism, is prevalent among certain elements in
our society. As if the British have the
slightest interest in causing Anguilla any harm! They would probably have to pay to bail us
out of it in the end, anyway. But, there
never had to be any good reason for conspiracy theories to flourish in the best
of times.
Anguillians
must face a new reality. Nothing will be
the same when this pandemic is over.
Public services will be pared down to a minimum. The days when the Anguilla public service was
used as a sponge to mop up the unemployed and the unemployable are over. We can no longer afford to employ five
persons to do the job of one as we presently do.
There
is the little matter of our failure to enforce our own tax laws. No enforcement proceedings have ever, to my
knowledge, been brought against a single tax defaulter in the modern history of
Anguilla. We can no longer afford to
continue forgiving persons who neglect to pay their taxes, as we have done for
decades past. If we do, why should any
foreign taxpayer contribute to our self-created folly.
One
last prediction. The next time our
government appeals to the British government for another hundred-million-dollar
bail out, we will finally lose our entitlement state of mind. The British deficit is presently about £300
billion. I see the British PM responding
to our Premier with these words, “Colonialism has been over for a long time. We have looked at the books. It appears that Anguilla has never in its
history contributed anything to the British Treasury. Do you not think it is about time that you
helped us with our fiscal deficit? We
were thinking of a token contribution from you in the region of ten million US
dollars. How about it?”
If
my cautionary words appear exaggerated to some, hopefully they will serve to
counterbalance the ridiculous claim that our health quarantine regime has been
imposed on our government by an oppressive and uncaring British government.